Futures: What's Coming Soon?

17. I see that the Dymec 7A has been replaced by the 7B.
    Does this mean the Dymec 8A is about to be replaced by the 8B?
1. Unless the vendor is planning to exit the business, a stream of future models are presumably "on the way". Indeed, I'd be more concerned if I thought a replacement product was not on the way.

17. Does anybody know anything about it?
1. In general, anyone who really knows will not tell you. Those who don't know, of course, will be happy to make guesses for you :-)

17. I see that the Crosby RasterJet 100 has a rebate offer.
    Does this mean Crosby is about to dump the Model 100?
1. Rebates often signal an end-of-life clearance sale (or a diplomatic move to placate customers who just bought the old model when the replacement model turns out to be a more attractive deal). But once a rebate deal has been in place for more than 90 days, it usually signals a semi-permanent price change (without having to actually change the price). Rebates allow vendors to have region-specific pricing while pretending to have one world-wide MSRP. Rebates also allow very quick price changes, merely by changing the rebate terms (or deleting it altogether).
   
   Less charitably, rebates are a selective price reduction, often excluding volume buyers (schools, businesses, government, the supplier's own employees, etc.). Unclaimed rebates also represent windfall profit from the subtantial percentage of individual end-user consumers who fail to act during the eligibility window, loose the essential paperwork (or in the case of gifts, never receive it), who fill out the paperwork incorrectly, and/or fail to follow-up on late payments. And the payments can be late indeed if the manufacturer decides they enjoy the use of your money, or just need to push some accounts payable out a few months to cook the books.
   
   Be sure to check for complaints in netnews, such as at http://groups.google.com/advanced_group_search before buying a product and counting on a rebate. At the very least check to see that the vendor isn't already in bankruptcy Chapter 7 or 11 (either of which will legally prevent them from paying rebates).
   
   If you are nervous about the brand name, be even more nervous about the rebate. When I revised this article in January 1999, resellers were still advertising "net" (after rebate) prices on Hayes modems, even though the original Hayes Microcompter Corp. had ceased operations entirely in late 1998, and hadn't paid rebates for several months prior to that. Meanwhile, back to the futures...

17. I see that the YoyoDyne SlimeJet 3B rebate is about to expire.
    Does this mean YoyoDyne is about to introduce a replacement?
1. That's only one of several possibilities. Others are listed below. A rebate offer can expire without a new product appearing, for several reasons:
   
   • The business conditions that gave rise to the rebate are now resolved, and the rebate is no longer economically necessary. This is often the case when the problem was excess inventory, particularly excess old inventory when some engineering change was in the works, and the old stuff needed to be sold or re-worked (and the rebate was cheaper than the rework).
   • A new promotional deal will be released on or just before that date.
   • The price-less-rebate is about to become the new official MSRP, as of that date.
   • There was supposed to be a replacement product available on or before that date, but it is late (or even cancelled).
   • The current product is the end of the line for that product type, and continuing the rebate late in the life cycle would just amount to needlessly leaving money on the table.
   • Don't overlook the possibility that nobody's minding the store.

17. I was thinking about buying one, but not if it's nearly obsolete.
1. Are you sure you want to wait?
   Are you sure you actually want the future device?

Narrative

• the vendor's own web site
• the vendor's own press releases (press releases often precede data sheets and web product data by weeks)
• industry-wide press releases, such as:
  http://www.businesswire.com/
• trade publication sites, like:
  http://www.theinquirer.net/
  http://www.theregus.com/
  http://www.techweb.com/
  http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/
• NetNews rumors: http://groups.google.com
• OEM component supplier sites: If the current product is based on an underlying third-party engine or mechanism, news from those suppliers may presage new products from their OEM customers ... or not.

Questions like those at the top of this article are asked often in netnews, and unless:

• the product is being test-marketed or early-marketed somewhere on the planet, or
• some news leaks to the press (above), or
• there's a rare case of a soon-to-be-ex-employee violating company policy, or
• an outside consultant or beta tester violates their non-disclosure agreement...

The computer business in general, and the peripherals business in particular, are highly competitive. Vendors tightly control futures info in order to avoid the Osborne Effect. If you've never heard of Osborne, well, that's the point. In the early days of PCs, they were a major player in the transportable market segment. But, they pre-announced a vastly new and improved machine, which torpedoed sales of the current model, and sank the company.

All computer hardware currently on store shelves is obsolete. The only thing that depreciates faster than computer hardware is fresh fruit. It is literally the case that the initial build is the final build for some PC products (including the PCs themselves).

This may be the wildest technology ride since the period of fighter aircraft development from 1935 to about 1955, when almost every new model was obsolete by the time the first full squadron was deployed.

If you have a need for a device, and the current model can do that job (and it includes software for the most recent prevailing operating systems), why wait? Sure, it never hurts to have an idea of what's coming, but consider...

Waiting "a little longer" can turn into "a lot longer".

Anecdote: In 1995, I was waiting for a certain model of display monitor to hit the retail market, having known about it because OEM customers of the vendor involved were already shipping it under their own names. It took over a year from when I first heard about it to when it was orderable under the maker's brand. In the meantime, I gave up, and ordered a different brand (that turned out to have higher resolution and refresh rates anyway).

If you have only an estimated release date window, a future product can slip up to a year or more, or the product could even be cancelled altogether. Even with a "firm" release date (as with many Microsoft software products, for example), slips of months are not uncommon. I notice that Microsoft seems to be addressing this problem with their "free technology upgrade" program. Within a few month window, there's no risk in buying the old model. Anecdote: I purchased MS Access database in 1997, thinking I would be shipped the latest version - well, it wasn't (it was Access 95 v7.0), but I got a "free" (shipping cost) upgrade to Access 97.

• Price: Will the replacement be priced above or below the current model? When you are looking at a low-end device, the replacement usually must match or beat the old price. With a mid-range or high-end device, the competitive pressure may be on features, and not price.
  
  
• Old Features: Will the feature set be a complete superset, or will the replacement drop some capability of interest to you that the current model has? (as the HP ScanJet 5P dropped legal size vs. the 4P)
  
  
• New Features: Will any additional features or capabilities be useful to you, or just overkill (for you) that you really didn't need to pay for? (If the newer model PC has a CD-RW instead of a plain CD-ROM drive , it will add to the price, but if you already have a DVD±RW, you probably would rather not pay the extra $200.)
  
  
• Risk: If the replacement is a major design overhaul, will that mean that the software, firmware, and possibly even hardware is initially less reliable than the current model? I often prefer to buy technologies that have been on the market for a year or so, because they tend to be more stable. Anecdote: On HP ScanJets for example, I like to buy the second generation of new designs. I skipped the originals and got a IIp, skipped the IIc and got a IIcx, skipped the 3C and got a 4C.
  
  
• Connection: Will the replacement device still use the same I/O interface, or will it use some newer interface, like USB 2.0 or IEEE-1394B FireWire, that you may not have on your PC, or that may commit you to expending a PCI slot and upgrading your operating system?
  
  
• I/O Card: If the current product includes an interface card, will the replacement still do so? It is common for multi-port devices to include no interface cards, on the argument that the supplier "wouldn't know which one to give you", but in fact to cut costs.
  
  
• Software Bundle: Will the bundled software change? Will the new bundle be a more or less compatible with your needs? Is the new GUI even more dumbed-down than the old one? Will the bundled 3rd-party apps still be the same. Will they be upgradable to "full" versions? How much spamware, spyware shovelware and general annoyware with the new bundle sneak onto your machine?
  
  
• Opsys: Will the replacement device be supported in your environment? If you're on Windows 3.1 or NT3.x, fuggedaboutit. Many recent devices also no longer support Windows 95 and NT 4, and Windows 98 &, ME and 2000 will soon face the knife.
  
  

I don't know the answers to these questions, and even if you did, it is possible for them to change at any time up to first shipments.

More Futures Anecdotes

When I bought my CDR (an HP 4020i), HP had a $200 rebate deal going, which often (but not always) signals that current model is being replaced. Also, the 4020i was based on an older 4x2 Philips drive, and it was widely known that Philips had a newer 6x2 drive, which we might have expected HP to moving to. Despite that, I bought the 4020i, in order to get a stable design that did my job at a price that was acceptable. It also later turned out that whereas the 4020i would do DAE (Digital Audio Extraction), the 6020 would not. Even if I'd had a full data sheet on the 6020 "future", HP wasn't then documenting whether or not their CDRs supported DAE, so only by waiting for actual user reports could I have learned that.

Even though Intel CPU moves are well known ahead of time, I bought a P5-133 PC the same day the clone maker announced their 166 and 200 MHz machines, because I knew that the 133 motherboard and BIOS was stable, and suspected the 133 price would drop nicely that day (and it did). I did the same again when the Pentium-II 300s came out (buying a freshly price-reduced 266), and getting a 1.0GHz Athon when the 1.1's arrived. I expect to buy an AMD "29xx" when the first "30xx" comes out. If you insist on having the very fastest processor, on the first day that it is available, you can expect to pay a steep premium, but then you knew that, right?

And sometimes I wait... Back when I was using a 300 dpi LaserJet-IIID, and the first 600 dpi engines came out, I decided that I would not give up duplexing just to get 600 dpi. When the LaserJet 4/4M arrived, it offered no duplexer (even though the underlying Canon engine could support one). Then the 4+/4M+ arrived, with an announcement of planned duplexing - an officially promised future product. I still waited. As I recall, it took nearly a year for that duplexer to finally start shipping, and I didn't order a 4M+ until the duplexer did ship. In the fast-moving printer industry, the base product can go obsolete before a late/slipped accessory makes it out the door.

Conclusion

I follow computer technology, and find I can often predict when a new product will appear, and what its feature set and price are likely to be. Nonetheless, I rarely "chase technology" or try to be the first on the block with the latest and greatest. Waiting for futures can be very frustrating. Placing early bets can be counter-productive.

I prefer instead to buy stuff that is actually in stock (or at least shippable), and that already supports creating the results I desire with the other hardware and software bits I already own (and with minimum support headaches).

Look to your results. The vendors probably don't like this philosophy.
As a buyer, you need to give it some thought.

So by all means go looking for futures info, but do so on the presumption that what you learn, more often than not, will merely support you in making an informed decision to buy the current product.