My general impression of the state of North American rail is:
- Commuter rail is making a modest comeback.
- Long-haul passenger is continuing a steady decline.
- Freight may be flat, but trackage miles are still declining.
Although passenger rail fans would welcome return to 1916 track miles 1945
departure frequency, one-stop airline-style interline booking, TGV-class
equipment/comfort, 300+ mph speed, and full integration with off-depot
non-rail transport, that doesn't seem to be coming to a century near us,
and may never.
Given the reality of AmTrak's losses, today's dwindling trackage, vanishing
passenger depots and self-destructing freight operators, is there a scenario
that could lead to a profitable, gradual return of long distance passenger
rail? (and without any government money and accompanying interference,
please)?
Any such revival would have to thrive under constraints like:
- Extremely low investment (mostly advertising and sales).
- Could be launched by an independent operator,
or by a single major railroad
(one that covers at least 1/3 of North America,
e.g. BNSF, CN, NS, UP), without
cooperation or inter-lining with any other road.
- No new trackage or speed upgrades required.
- Could begin service with existing
(i.e. non-existing) depot infrastructure.
- Terminal points would not have to be at convenient
pedestrian locations, nor even provide ample secure parking.
- Schedule could start with very few widely-dispersed terminals.
- Schedule frequency, en-route times and delays need initially
be no better than AmTrak is today.
- Minimal new equipment required; in particular,
no new passenger-only rolling stock at the outset.
I'd like to propose a possible scenario...
Eventually Auto Rail
Every time I make a 500..900 mile drive,
I gaze wistfully at the active and
abandoned rail ROWs along the route, and wish that I
could be making the trip while relaxing in a lounge car,
while the family 4-wheeler rides along in back.
If someone could offer even a single train a day,
at near IRS (30c/mile) mileage charges (just for the car),
I'd be happy to make advance reservations, and drive to
the nearest intermodal facility at any random hour of the day,
in order to avoid driving for 7 hours or more. If such
service were nationwide, I'd probably use it, and take the car,
rather than fly, when visiting east coast family
(even if an overnight trip).
I am aware that AmTrak runs such a service,
but only from Lorton VA to Sanford FL, and that it has
a number of restrictions (e.g. is not an on-demand service,
and requires one- or two-hour early arrival).
If the AutoTrain is profitable (and it apparently is),
I'm wondering why AmTrak doesn't offer it elsewhere
(I'd guess lack of capital for the rolling stock and
loading facilities),
and if not profitable, why they haven't tried to send it
the way of the Desert Wind and Pioneer.
In any case, for AmTrak or a freight operator
to offer AutoRail between other cities would at least
require new passenger coaches, diners, lounges
and/or sleepers. That won't happen, so
let's start more modestly.
Start with RV Rail
There is a profitable RVrail operation in Mexico.
Carrying RVs has several advantages over cars/vans,
and over pedestrian passengers:
- No coaches. Passengers ride in their RV
- No diners. Passengers eat in their RV.
- No sleepers. Passengers sleep in their RV.
- No power (HEP or powercar). RVs can run own generators or engines for
climate control, lighting, accessories, entertainment.
Here's how I speculate such a service
could be launched in the US:
- Start with service only between existing intermodal
facilities, and perhaps very few of those.
- Drop a modular office at each site for ticketing,
check-in and the all-important liability waiver
(sell insurance separately).
- Establish an 800 phone and web site for info,
reservations and ticket sales.
- Possibly use existing trailer-train type rolling
stock for carriage of the RVs.
- Advertise! I took AmTrak from
Boston to Denver in 1996, and when I told my
co-workers about the trip, the majority of them
responded: "You can still do that?"
- This initial RV-only service could be priced well
above 30c/mile, both because RVs cost more to run
than that, and because the typical
multiple-passengers-per-vehicle are also saving a
bundle by not having to have separate passenger tickets.
If the trial service turns out to be successful, it could gradually
be expanded, including:
- Add more terminals.
- Expand sales to conventional travel agents.
- Interline with other railroads inspired to try RVrail.
- Add more stock, for Chunnel-style on-demand departures
without advance reservations.
- Update the rolling stock to provide power to the RVs
so they don't have to run their own engines/generators.
- Accept dead-heading tractor-trailer units with sleeper-cabs.
When a predictable growth pattern emerges:
- Add a canteen car, and some drive-on stock
that would allow cars and vans to be carried,
and permit their occupants to use the canteen car,
but mainly ride in their own vehicles.
(would the loading gauge permit this?)
- Add more departures. esp for locations that
were middle-of-the-night on
the initial schedule.
- Add normal passenger equipment.
- Upgrade mainlines for speed.
- Enter new golden era of long-haul passenger rail :-)
Problems/Issues.
- $$$
- I do not have easy access to the numbers on
what it costs to move freight by rail.
It may not in fact be possible to offer
even RVrail at prices low enough to get
drivers off the pavement.
- Who
- AmTrak, according to a 1997 Wall Street Journal
article, can't even get people to take the train
when it is both cheaper and faster than
air between two cities! AmTrak's inept marketing,
quasi-governmental heritage and crippling legacy
labor/contract restrictions would seem to rule it
out as a host for this proposed rail renaissance.
The freight roads, on the other hand, are so
myopically focused on pulling up spikes, that I
doubt they would even recognize a new market
totally awash in dollars. Perhaps a completely
new operator, "RVRX", could start it using leased
equipment and hired AmTrak motive power.
AOE (American Orient Express) has shown that this
approach is not impossible.
- Liability
- Freight railroads are scared to death of liability.
Some won't even allow excursions, because they
know that signed waivers won't protect them from
juries that arbitrarily ignore such contracts.
Although it would be nice if contracts were honored
by what passes for our judicial system, probably
what is required is national rail legislation
limiting liability to some default value
(as in air travel). Want more recourse?
Buy after-market trip insurance.
- MindShare
- The last generation of Americans who recall a
world in which you could get nearly everywhere
by rail are now retired. The
current populace knows rail only from TV
reporting of spectacular accidents, or waiting
for a mile-long slow freight to clear a crossing.
They may be dimly aware that AmTrak exists,
for example, but it simply never occurs to them
to consider rail travel, even when it would be
all of: [cheaper, faster, safer, more comfortable]
compared to what they are considering.
On the other hand, today's travellers are
increasingly disillusioned with the restrictions
and delays of air travel, with its sardine
seating and cattle-class service. They also
have no recollection of the unpleasant side
of rail travel earlier this century - the
cinders and smoke.
If a major freighter decided to try RVrail,
they would need to make it visible;
not just advertise (and educate), but also
go back to putting their logo on bridges and
at crossings, with not-so-subtle reminder ads
(esp. over Interstates) saying
"You could be riding and not driving" or
"Ride nationwide XYZ RVrail".
- Logistics:
- Keeping people inside their RVs at low speeds
and when stopped other than at a terminal.
- Contingencies, for example:
- Getting the passengers and their vehicles
back on the highway when the train breaks
down in a remote location.
- Communication with the crew should a
medical or other passenger emergency
arise enroute (or even to report hobos
attempting to break in).
- Handling failed vehicles unable to
depart railcar under own power.
No doubt the lessons of EuroStar (chunnel auto-rail)
could be applied.
|